Few elections have been more closely contested or more important than those taking place in Turkey on Sunday. Voters face a stark choice which will not only define their country’s future, but reverberate more widely. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been part of a broader global shift towards authoritarianism. His defeat, after 20 years in power, could allow Turkey to move back towards democracy and greater freedom – the pledge which unites the multiparty opposition Nation’s Alliance. Another victory for him might see it slide into outright autocracy – leading to the destruction of essential institutions and civil society, already badly damaged by the assaults of the president and his Justice and Development party (AKP).
Polls place the opposition coalition only just ahead, though Thursday’s withdrawal of another opposition candidate may boost its prospects. Candidates must win 51% in the first round to avoid a runoff, which experts think would favour Mr Erdoğan. There is also concern that a narrow opposition victory might not carry the day. Elections still matter in Turkey: Mr Erdoğan wants a mandate. But that also depends on winning, and these are not fully free and fair. In 2019, the election watchdog ordered a rerun of Istanbul’s mayoral race after the AKP’s defeat, though the original victor triumphed again. The president has browbeaten the judiciary.
The Nation’s Alliance candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s party (CHP), is an unglamorous figure and member of the Alevi religious minority. He has sought to make a virtue of necessity by presenting himself as a humble representative focused on people’s struggle to put food on the table, and has courted support from the marginalised Kurdish community. Mr Erdoğan, the charismatic strongman, has unveiled yet more grand projects.
Mr Erdoğan’s first decade in power saw high growth and sharp reductions in inequality, and he pushed through major infrastructure improvements. But his harsh crackdown on 2013’s nationwide protests proved a tipping point, and after he saw off 2016’s inept coup attempt, political repression intensified. He has jailed journalists and dissidents – often deeming opponents “terrorists” – and eroded women’s, LGBTQ+ and other civil rights. Now the chaotic initial response to February’s earthquakes, and especially the dire economic situation, has hit support. Inflation is sky-high, the lira rock bottom and employment is collapsing.
Some hope that the opposition, by reviving the economy, could help Europe to diversify its supply chains away from China. The president has made his country a major regional player, balancing ties with the west and Russia; the alliance have indicated they would turn towards the west, and Sweden hopes an opposition victory would speed its entry into Nato. But even if Mr Kılıçdaroğlu wins the presidential race, the coalition must also triumph in the parliamentary contest to carry through its keystone pledge to end the centralisation of power in the presidency and restore parliamentary democracy. Maintaining their disparate alliance will be tricky. And the alliance’s promise to deport 2 million refugees back to Syria within two years is disturbing and shameful.
Given the pressing dangers to Turkey’s remaining freedoms, any move towards democracy should be welcomed, and will need support. That should not rest upon exaggerated expectations about what any new government can and will achieve. Nor should it be entirely uncritical. Wishful thinking will not help anyone.
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