In the lead-up to Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday, there seemed to be good grounds to believe that voters were about to turn their back on Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s authoritarian brand of nationalism. His assumption of quasi-monarchical presidential powers in 2018 had succeeded in uniting a perennially divided opposition against him. Polls suggested a close race, but placed the president’s main rival for power, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, significantly ahead. Requiring a vote above 50% to win outright and avoid a runoff, Mr Kılıçdaroğlu’s declared aspiration was to “finish it in the first round”.
That optimism has turned out to be sadly misplaced. As it transpired, it was Mr Erdoğan who almost won at the first time of asking, winning over 49% of votes to Mr Kılıçdaroğlu’s 45%. The coalition led by the president’s Justice and Development party (AKP) is also set to win a surprise majority in the Grand National Assembly. That outcome will stymie opposition attempts to restore parliamentary democracy to Turkey, irrespective of the result of the presidential runoff in a fortnight’s time.
Mr Kılıçdaroğlu’s race is not yet run. But a combination of incumbency advantage, and the momentum provided by the AKP’s win in parliament, means that Mr Erdoğan is now likely to extend his increasingly autocratic rule into a third decade. This despite an inflation rate running close to 50% as a result of his refusal to raise interest rates, and widespread disillusionment at the government’s sluggish response to the devastating earthquakes three months ago.
For Europe and the US, which had hoped an opposition victory would see Turkey turn more towards the west, five more years of Mr Erdoğan would be a highly unwelcome development – particularly ahead of a decisive period in Ukraine. For those likely to suffer further erosion of their civil rights in Mr Erdoğan’s increasingly illiberal democracy, Sunday’s setback is a bitter disappointment and an ominous portent. Turkey’s Kurdish minority population, dissidents, journalists, women’s rights campaigners and LGBTQ+ people have all been subject to political repression in recent years, as the president has shored up his popularity through culture wars and a focus on terrorism and security. If Mr Erdoğan survives this, the most concerted and unified democratic challenge to his power to date, the temptation to move Turkey further down the road towards full-blown autocracy will be considerable.
Mr Kılıçdaroğlu’s deflated alliance has two weeks to shift the dial in a presidential race that has confounded its expectations. In the context of a hostile media overwhelmingly biased in favour of Mr Erdoğan, that will be a very tall order. If the opposition is to succeed, it will need to make inroads among less well-off nationalist voters outside the cities, who appear to have responded to pre-election measures to mitigate the crisis caused by soaring inflation. Last week, Mr Erdoğan announced a 45% pay hike for public sector workers, the latest in a series of moves including a reduction in electricity prices, and the offer of a month’s free natural gas to households. Notwithstanding the economic pain caused by out-of-control inflation, Mr Erdoğan persuaded the religious conservative working class that he remains the best leader to protect their interests. Unless Mr Kılıçdaroğlu can convince enough of them otherwise, the medium-term prospects for Turkish democracy look bleak.