Careful what you wish for. The Thai royalist-military establishment has spent years attempting to suppress the political forces that swelled around the billionaire businessman Thaksin Shinawatra. Instead of addressing the social roots of his populist appeal to rural Thais and the urban poor, it has used two coups, court cases and ruthless suppression of dissent to see off the tycoon and his proxies. The military has remained in power since removing his sister as prime minister in 2014. Yet in Sunday’s election, Pheu Thai, the latest party associated with him, was eclipsed only by a new progressive party demanding military- and monarchy-related reform.
The results are not even a landslide, says one political analyst, but a skyfall. The poll ruptured the division of Thailand into establishment “yellow shirt” and Thaksin “red shirt” supporters. The new Move Forward party took 14m votes and 151 seats by winning over young urbanites who would recoil from the former prime minister, a polarising figure convicted of corruption in absentia and with a dismal human rights record in office. It also picked up some support from Pheu Thai, now fronted by his daughter, which still took 9m votes and 141 seats. Together, the opposition have trounced the political establishment and agreed to form a coalition government.
That does not mean they will be able to do so. Move Forward’s predecessor, Future Forward, placed third in 2019’s election but was dissolved, with its leader disqualified as an MP. A similar bid is afoot against Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat. To become prime minister he needs support from military-appointed senators as well as elected MPs; several of the former have said they will not back him. And if the elite allows Move Forward to proceed, it will be poised to exploit – or foment – crises that can bring down a government.
Thaksin, who has said he will return from self-exile, rose by tapping into deep-rooted grievances about glaring inequalities. Beyond piecemeal subsidies and handouts, the elite has done little to counter his offer. The 2014 coup was a turning point for many younger Thais. If their parents have seen the military as a source of stability, they see it erasing their future through increasingly authoritarian rule and an economic slump. Then came the royal succession in 2016. King Maha Vajiralongkorn lacks the moral authority accorded to his father, and has centralised wealth and power. Use of harsh laws against insulting the monarchy helped to provoke previously unthinkable protests against royal power and privilege.
While the old order tries to drag Thailand back towards a deferential past, voters are looking to the future. They see themselves as citizens, not subjects. Even Pheu Thai’s machine politics and materially focused messaging looks old-fashioned to many – and rumours that it might form a pact with a minor military party boosted Move Forward, which has vowed to rein in the military, take on the oligarchs and amend the lese-majesty laws.
As the political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak observes, “The more foul play that unfolds, such as military takeovers, party dissolutions and the disqualifications of elected representatives, the likelier it is that street demonstrations return.” The old playbook is not working, and the failures are more striking each time. Thaksin was a symptom. The elite’s real problem is themselves.