Dwindling fish stocks caused by the climate crisis are leading to an increase in pirate attacks, according to a new study looking at two piracy hotspots over the past two decades.
Warmer seas have negatively affected fisheries in east Africa, one of the world’s worst areas for piracy; while in the South China Sea, another hotspot for attacks, it has had the opposite effect: fish populations have risen.
This phenomenon created a “rare natural experiment” in which to test the links between climate breakdown and piracy risk, according to Gary LaFree, a professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Maryland, and one of the co-authors of the paper, published in the American Meteorological Society journal, Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS).
“We wanted to test the hypothesis: does piracy increase when fish production declines and decrease when fish production increases?” said LaFree. The answer, they found, was yes. “We did a multi-varied analysis to see whether the underlying theory was statistically significant and it is.”
The study, which looked at more than 2,000 attacks in east Africa and the South China Sea over the past 20 years, found the trends in piracy were linked to the impact of warmer seas on fish stocks.
In east Africa, where fish populations are declining due to warmer seas, piracy rates have increased. But rising sea temperature had the opposite effect in the South China Sea. There, fish populations have increased and piracy rates have declined.
“In a timeline of roughly 20 years, we’re picking up statistically significant, measurable differences,” LaFree said. “I was surprised by how rapidly those changes are occurring, especially when you think of climate change most likely accelerating in the future.”
Previous studies quoted in the paper show that fishers, who already have seafaring skills and are some of the poorest communities in the world, are targeted by criminal syndicates engaged in piracy.
“You tend to think either you are a criminal or a non-criminal,” said LaFree. “But there is evidence from other researchers that some fishermen drift into it, depending on how fishing is going.”
Bo Jiang, an assistant professor in the faculty of social sciences at the University of Macau and the lead author of the study, said: “I grew up in Singapore. There are a lot of fishermen in nearby waters who are known as ‘standby pirates’.”
The link between warming seas, fisheries and pirate attacks was significant, even after controlling for other influences such as economic stress, private security guards on board, and local political corruption, the authors said. It also raised questions over how to help fishers.
“For the governments of Somalia and Kenya and coastal states in east Africa, this is a pressing issue that needs to be addressed,” Jiang said.
“If our arguments are correct, and sea temperatures continue to rise into the foreseeable future, the struggle against piracy in east Africa will become increasingly difficult,” the paper said.
Piracy cost the shipping industry $9bn a year and poses a major security threat. About 90% of the world’s traded goods are transported by sea.